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71.
Sensitivity-guided reduction of parametric dimensionality for multi-objective calibration of watershed models 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Problem complexity for watershed model calibration is heavily dependent on the number of parameters that can be identified during model calibration. This study investigates the use of global sensitivity analysis as a screening tool to reduce the parametric dimensionality of multi-objective hydrological model calibration problems while maximizing the information extracted from hydrological response data. This study shows that by expanding calibration problem formulations beyond traditional, statistical error metrics to also include metrics that capture indices or signatures of hydrological function, it is possible to reduce the complexity of calibration while maintaining high quality model predictions. The sensitivity-guided calibration is demonstrated using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) conceptual rainfall–runoff model of moderate complexity (i.e., up to 14 freely varying parameters). Using both statistical and hydrological metrics, optimization results demonstrate that parameters controlling at least 20% of the model output variance (through individual effects and interactions) should be included in the calibration process. This threshold generally yields 30–40% reductions in the number of SAC-SMA parameters requiring calibration – setting the others to a priori values – while maintaining high quality predictions. Two parameters are recommended to be calibrated in all cases (percent impervious area and lower zone tension water storage), three parameters are needed in drier watersheds (additional impervious area, riparian zone vegetation, and percent of percolation going to tension storage), and the lower zone parameters are crucial unless the watershed is very dry. Overall, this study demonstrates that a coupled, multi-objective sensitivity and calibration analysis better captures differences between watersheds during model calibration and serves to maximize the value of available watershed response time series. These contributions are particularly important given the ongoing development of more complex integrated models, which will require new tools to address the growing discrepancy between the information content of hydrological data and the number of model parameters that have to be estimated. 相似文献
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73.
Garnet‐controlled very low velocities in the lower mantle transition zone at sites of mantle upwelling 
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下载免费PDF全文 Deep mantle plumes and associated increased geotherms are expected to cause an upward deflection of the lower–upper mantle boundary and an overall thinning of the mantle transition zone between about 410 and 660 km depth. We use subsequent forward modelling of mineral assemblages, seismic velocities, and receiver functions to explain the common paucity of such observations in receiver function data. In the lower mantle transition zone, large horizontal differences in seismic velocities may result from temperature‐dependent assemblage variations. At this depth, primitive mantle compositions are dominated by majoritic garnet at high temperatures. Associated seismic velocities are expected to be much lower than for ringwoodite‐rich assemblages at undisturbed thermal conditions. Neglecting this ultralow‐velocity zone at upwelling sites can cause a miscalculation of the lower–upper mantle boundary on the order of 20 km. 相似文献
74.
Silke Jahn-Awe Jan Pleuger Dirk Frei Neven Georgiev Nikolaus Froitzheim Thorsten J. Nagel 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2012,101(7):1971-2004
In the Central Rhodopes of southern Bulgaria, an eclogite-bearing rock sheet belonging to the Middle Allochthon (Starcevo Unit) is over- and underlain by eclogite-free, amphibolite-facies rock units along low-angle shear zones, the Borovica Shear Zone at the top and the Starcevo-Ardino Shear Zone at the base. The age of these shear zones is determined by U–Pb zircon dating of pre-, syn- and posttectonic magmatic rocks, mostly pegmatite veins, using LA–SF–ICP–MS. Zircons from pre- to syntectonic pegmatites within the Borovica Shear Zone yielded ages of ca. 45–43?Ma, indicating that the shear zone was active at that time, and zircons from a pretectonic pegmatite and a posttectonic granitoid body within the Starcevo-Ardino Shear Zone yielded ages of ca. 45 and ca. 36?Ma, respectively, giving a time frame for the activity of that shear zone which probably rather postdated the activity of the Borovica Shear Zone. By combining the ages with the kinematics of the shear zones and the metamorphic history of the rock units, the following scenario is sketched: Soon after the Starcevo Unit reached peak pressure (eclogite facies), it was exhumed to a mid-crustal level by top-to-the-north-west, extensional unroofing along the Borovica Shear Zone, in a kinematic framework of orogen-parallel extension. Beginning at ca. 40?Ma, the partly exhumed Starcevo Unit was underthrust from the south-west by continental crust of the foreland (Apulia), forming the Lower Allochthon of the Rhodopes, along the Starcevo-Ardino Shear Zone. These results underline the significance of orogen-parallel extension for the exhumation of high-pressure rocks. With respect to regional geology of the Hellenides and the Aegean, it is found that the tectonic architecture of the Rhodopes is essentially of Tertiary age. Cretaceous syn-metamorphic shear zones do exist but are largely restricted to higher levels of the nappe stack (Upper Allochthon). The Rhodopes do not represent an older essentially Mesozoic core of the Hellenides but are formed by the internal, higher-metamorphic portions of the same major nappe systems as occur in the Hellenides. 相似文献
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Peter Schmid-Beurmann Luisa Ottolini Frédéric Hatert Thorsten Geisler Magdalena Huyskens Volker Kahlenberg 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,107(4):501-515
The topotactic oxidation and delithiation reaction from triphylite, Li(Fe,Mn)PO4, leading to ferrisicklerite, Li<1(Fe3+,Mn2+)PO4, was investigated under hydrothermal conditions. A cuboid cut from a triphylite single-crystal (Palermo Mine, New Hampshire, USA) with the composition Li0.93(3)(Fe2+ 0.733(6),Fe3+ 0.015(1),Mn2+ 0.210(4),Mg0.063(2))1.021(8)P1.00(2)O4 in addition with ground bulk material were treated with KMnO4 and 30 % H2O2(aq) as oxidizing agent in a 0.1 N hydrochloric acid solution in the temperature range between 60 and 200 °C. At 120 °C a rim of 0.1 mm thickness of ferrisicklerite had formed around the core of unreacted triphylite. The sharp reaction boundary was clearly visible, due to the reddish brown absorption colors of ferrisicklerite, compared to colorless triphylite. Using single-crystal X-ray diffraction (XRD), secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), electron probe micro-analysis (EPMA) and 57Fe-Mössbauer spectroscopy the product ferrisicklerite was characterized and its composition determined as Li0.30(7)(Fe2+ 0.049(1)Fe3+ 0.65(2)Mn2+ 0.218(5)Mg0.062(2))0.98(1)P1.01(3)O4, with unit cell parameters a?=?4.795(1), b?=?9.992(4), and c?=?5.886(2) Å. EPMA investigations across the reaction boundary showed no changes in the concentrations of Fe, Mn, Mg, and P. In contrast, SIMS measurements clearly proved the delithiated state of the ferrisicklerite product. Polarization microscopy revealed that the orientation of the ferrisicklerite rim was the same as that of the original triphylite single-crystal, confirming the strictly topotactic character of the reaction. 相似文献
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Rune G. Graversen Thorsten Mauritsen Sybren Drijfhout Michael Tjernstr?m Sebastian M?rtensson 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(11-12):2103-2112
During summer 2007 the Arctic sea-ice shrank to the lowest extent ever observed. The role of the atmospheric energy transport in this extreme melt event is explored using the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We find that in summer 2007 there was an anomalous atmospheric flow of warm and humid air into the region that suffered severe melt. This anomaly was larger than during any other year in the data (1989?C2008). Convergence of the atmospheric energy transport over this area led to positive anomalies of the downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes. In the region that experienced unusual ice melt, the net anomaly of the surface fluxes provided enough extra energy to melt roughly one meter of ice during the melting season. When the ocean successively became ice-free, the surface-albedo decreased causing additional absorption of shortwave radiation, despite the fact that the downwelling solar radiation was smaller than average. We argue that the positive anomalies of net downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes played a key role in initiating the 2007 extreme ice melt, whereas the shortwave-radiation changes acted as an amplifying feedback mechanism in response to the melt. 相似文献
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Thorsten Mauritsen Rune G. Graversen Daniel Klocke Peter L. Langen Bjorn Stevens Lorenzo Tomassini 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2539-2554
Earth’s climate sensitivity to radiative forcing induced by a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 is determined by feedback mechanisms, including changes in atmospheric water vapor, clouds and surface albedo, that act to either amplify or dampen the response. The climate system is frequently interpreted in terms of a simple energy balance model, in which it is assumed that individual feedback mechanisms are additive and act independently. Here we test these assumptions by systematically controlling, or locking, the radiative feedbacks in a state-of-the-art climate model. The method is shown to yield a near-perfect decomposition of change into partial temperature contributions pertaining to forcing and each of the feedbacks. In the studied model water vapor feedback stands for about half the temperature change, CO2-forcing about one third, while cloud and surface albedo feedback contributions are relatively small. We find a close correspondence between forcing, feedback and partial surface temperature response for the water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks, while the cloud feedback is inefficient in inducing surface temperature change. Analysis suggests that cloud-induced warming in the upper tropical troposphere, consistent with rising convective cloud anvils in a warming climate enhances the negative lapse-rate feedback, thereby offsetting some of the warming that would otherwise be attributable to this positive cloud feedback. By subsequently combining feedback mechanisms we find a positive synergy acting between the water vapor feedback and the cloud feedback; that is, the combined cloud and water vapor feedback is greater than the sum of its parts. Negative synergies surround the surface albedo feedback, as associated cloud and water vapor changes dampen the anticipated climate change induced by retreating snow and ice. Our results highlight the importance of treating the coupling between clouds, water vapor and temperature in a deepening troposphere. 相似文献
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Temperature inversions are a common feature of the Arctic wintertime boundary layer. They have important impacts on both radiative and turbulent heat fluxes and partly determine local climate-change feedbacks. Understanding the spread in inversion strength modelled by current global climate models is therefore an important step in better understanding Arctic climate and its present and future changes. Here, we show how the formation of Arctic air masses leads to the emergence of a cloudy and a clear state of the Arctic winter boundary layer. In the cloudy state, cloud liquid water is present, little to no surface radiative cooling occurs and inversions are elevated and relatively weak, whereas surface radiative cooling leads to strong surface-based temperature inversions in the clear state. Comparing model output to observations, we find that most climate models lack a realistic representation of the cloudy state. An idealised single-column model experiment of the formation of Arctic air reveals that this bias is linked to inadequate mixed-phase cloud microphysics, whereas turbulent and conductive heat fluxes control the strength of inversions within the clear state. 相似文献
79.
Plasma structures resulting from the solar wind interaction with weakcomets are discussed. Numericalsimulations using a newly
developed hybrid code are presented. The simulations are primarily applied to quantitative data for cometWirtanen, which will
be the target of the Rosetta mission. It isexpected that Wirtanen is very weak during the first encounter. The main purpose
is the discussion of the different features of the plasmaenvironment, such as the structured cycloidal plasma tail and non-linear
Mach cones typical for weak comets and their relation tostructures like shocklets, bow shock, diamagnetic cavity and the “classical”magnetotail
found at stronger comets. Furthermore, the sensitivity ofthese various features in dependence on the plasma parameters is
investigated. 相似文献
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